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gbanyan d0bf2fe911 Update STATE.md: Phase 1 complete, Phase 2 awaiting user review

Phase 1 (Foundation) all 7 spike + foundation scripts committed.
Phase 2 (Methodology rewrite) §III-G..L draft delivered;
5 open questions flagged for user decision before Phase 3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-05-12 15:24:03 +08:00

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STATE — Current snapshot

Date: 2026-05-12 Active milestone: Paper A v4.0 — Big-4 reframe Active branch: paper-a-v4-big4 (12 commits ahead of yolo-signature-pipeline) Active phase: Phase 2 — Methodology rewrite, draft delivered, awaiting user review of 5 open questions in paper/v4/paper_a_methodology_v4_section_iii.md before Phase 3 begins

Recently completed

Phase 1 (Foundation, 7 spike + foundation scripts):

Script 32 (e1d81e3): non-Firm-A calibration verdict C
Script 33 (8ac0988): reverse-anchor PAPER_C_STRONG (directional ρ=+0.744)
Script 34 (55f9f94): Big-4 K=2 dip-test multimodal p<0.0001, bootstrap CI [0.974, 0.977] / [3.48, 3.97]
Script 35 (55f9f94): firm × cluster — Firm A 0% C1 / 82.5% C3, PwC 23.5% C1
Script 36 (ccd9f23): K=2 LOOO UNSTABLE (firm-mass conflation; max Δcos=0.028)
Script 37 (92f1db8): K=3 LOOO PARTIAL (component shape stable, membership ±5-13pp)
Script 38 (bc36dcc): convergence STRONG — 3 lenses pairwise ρ ≥ 0.879
Script 39 (39575ce): per-signature convergence MODERATE — κ=0.87 between per-CPA and per-sig K=3 fits
Script 40 (338737d): pixel-identity FAR = 0% on n=262 ground-truth replicated

Phase 2 (Methodology rewrite): §III-G..L draft delivered at paper/v4/paper_a_methodology_v4_section_iii.md (commit on the same branch). Single coherent rewrite covering 6 sub-sections (G/H/I/J/K/L); cross-references to all 9 spike scripts; 5 open questions flagged at end of draft for user decision.

Pending — Phase 2 user review (BEFORE Phase 3)

5 decisions needed from user before Phase 3 (Results regeneration) starts:

§III-G scope justification — three-point argument enough, or add a fourth?
§III-H Firm A phrasing — "case study of templated end" vs an alternative framing?
§III-J K=3 vs K=2 selection — lean on LOOO (current draft) or strengthen BIC argument?
§III-L hybrid classifier — keep inherited 5-way box rule, or commit to K=3 hard label as primary?
Section IV table numbering scheme — confirm before Phase 3 builds tables.

Plus: any prose-level edits the user wants on the §III draft.

Blockers

None.

Open questions deferred from spike

Bootstrap stability of cosine and dHash crossings jointly (not just marginally) — addressed in Phase 1 if time permits
K=2 vs K=3 final choice for §III-J — both reported, but operational classifier needs to commit to one (recommend K=2 for interpretability; K=3 in supplementary)

Things to remember (per memory)

Provenance-verify all empirical claims against fresh sqlite/grep (feedback-provenance-fabrication)
Don't mock the DB or use placeholders — every number must trace to a script + query
Partner Jimmy already proposed Big-4 direction (this is execution, not pitching a new direction)
Paper C standalone is shelved — folded into v4.0 §IV-K

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