Three blockers from codex gpt-5.4 round-3 review (codex_review_gpt54_v3_3.md):
B1 Classifier vs three-method threshold mismatch
- Methodology III-L rewritten to make explicit that the per-signature
classifier and the accountant-level three-method convergence operate
at different units (signature vs accountant) and are complementary
rather than substitutable.
- Add Results IV-G.3 + Table XII operational-threshold sensitivity:
cos>0.95 vs cos>0.945 shifts dual-rule capture by 1.19 pp on whole
Firm A; ~5% of signatures flip at the Uncertain/Moderate boundary.
B2 Held-out validation false "within Wilson CI" claim
- Script 24 recomputes both calibration-fold and held-out-fold rates
with Wilson 95% CIs and a two-proportion z-test on each rule.
- Table XI replaced with the proper fold-vs-fold comparison; prose
in Results IV-G.2 and Discussion V-C corrected: extreme rules agree
across folds (p>0.7); operational rules in the 85-95% band differ
by 1-5 pp due to within-Firm-A heterogeneity (random 30% sample
contained more high-replication C1 accountants), not generalization
failure.
B3 Interview evidence reframed as practitioner knowledge
- The Firm A "interviews" referenced throughout v3.3 are private,
informal professional conversations, not structured research
interviews. Reframed accordingly: all "interview*" references in
abstract / intro / methodology / results / discussion / conclusion
are replaced with "domain knowledge / industry-practice knowledge".
- This avoids overclaiming methodological formality and removes the
human-subjects research framing that triggered the ethics-statement
requirement.
- Section III-H four-pillar Firm A validation now stands on visual
inspection, signature-level statistics, accountant-level GMM, and
the three Section IV-H analyses, with practitioner knowledge as
background context only.
- New Section III-M ("Data Source and Firm Anonymization") covers
MOPS public-data provenance, Firm A/B/C/D pseudonymization, and
conflict-of-interest declaration.
Add signature_analysis/24_validation_recalibration.py for the recomputed
calib-vs-held-out z-tests and the classifier sensitivity analysis;
output in reports/validation_recalibration/.
Pending (not in this commit): abstract length (368 -> 250 words),
Impact Statement removal, BD/McCrary sensitivity reporting, full
reproducibility appendix, references cleanup.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
14 KiB
I. Introduction
Financial audit reports serve as a critical mechanism for ensuring corporate accountability and investor protection. In Taiwan, the Certified Public Accountant Act (會計師法 §4) and the Financial Supervisory Commission's attestation regulations (查核簽證核准準則 §6) require that certifying CPAs affix their signature or seal (簽名或蓋章) to each audit report [1]. While the law permits either a handwritten signature or a seal, the CPA's attestation on each report is intended to represent a deliberate, individual act of professional endorsement for that specific audit engagement [2].
The digitization of financial reporting has introduced a practice that complicates this intent. As audit reports are now routinely generated, transmitted, and archived as PDF documents, it is technically and operationally straightforward to reproduce a CPA's stored signature image across many reports rather than re-executing the signing act for each one. This reproduction can occur either through an administrative stamping workflow---in which scanned signature images are affixed by staff as part of the report-assembly process---or through a firm-level electronic signing system that automates the same step. From the perspective of the output image the two workflows are equivalent: both yield a pixel-level reproduction of a single stored image on every report the partner signs off, so that signatures on different reports of the same partner are identical up to reproduction noise. We refer to signatures produced by either workflow collectively as non-hand-signed. Although this practice may fall within the literal statutory requirement of "signature or seal," it raises substantive concerns about audit quality, as an identically reproduced signature applied across hundreds of reports may not represent meaningful individual attestation for each engagement. Unlike traditional signature forgery, where a third party attempts to imitate another person's handwriting, non-hand-signing involves the legitimate signer's own stored signature being reused. This practice, while potentially widespread, is visually invisible to report users and virtually undetectable through manual inspection at scale: regulatory agencies overseeing thousands of publicly listed companies cannot feasibly examine each signature for evidence of image reproduction.
The distinction between non-hand-signing detection and signature forgery detection is both conceptually and technically important. The extensive body of research on offline signature verification [3]--[8] has focused almost exclusively on forgery detection---determining whether a questioned signature was produced by its purported author or by an impostor. This framing presupposes that the central threat is identity fraud. In our context, identity is not in question; the CPA is indeed the legitimate signer. The question is whether the physical act of signing occurred for each individual report, or whether a single signing event was reproduced as an image across many reports. This detection problem differs fundamentally from forgery detection: while it does not require modeling skilled-forger variability, it introduces the distinct challenge of separating legitimate intra-signer consistency from image-level reproduction, requiring an analytical framework focused on detecting abnormally high similarity across documents.
A secondary methodological concern shapes the research design.
Many prior similarity-based classification studies rely on ad-hoc thresholds---declaring two images equivalent above a hand-picked cosine cutoff, for example---without principled statistical justification.
Such thresholds are fragile and invite reviewer skepticism, particularly in an archival-data setting where the cost of misclassification propagates into downstream inference.
A defensible approach requires (i) a statistically principled threshold-determination procedure, ideally anchored to an empirical reference population drawn from the target corpus; (ii) convergent validation across multiple threshold-determination methods that rest on different distributional assumptions; and (iii) external validation against anchor populations with known ground-truth characteristics using precision, recall, F_1, and equal-error-rate metrics that prevail in the biometric-verification literature.
Despite the significance of the problem for audit quality and regulatory oversight, no prior work has specifically addressed non-hand-signing detection in financial audit documents at scale with these methodological safeguards. Woodruff et al. [9] developed an automated pipeline for signature analysis in corporate filings for anti-money-laundering investigations, but their work focused on author clustering (grouping signatures by signer identity) rather than detecting reuse of a stored image. Copy-move forgery detection methods [10], [11] address duplicated regions within or across images but are designed for natural images and do not account for the specific characteristics of scanned document signatures, where legitimate visual similarity between a signer's authentic signatures is expected and must be distinguished from image reproduction. Research on near-duplicate image detection using perceptual hashing combined with deep learning [12], [13] provides relevant methodological foundations but has not been applied to document forensics or signature analysis. From the statistical side, the methods we adopt for threshold determination---the Hartigan dip test [37], Burgstahler-Dichev / McCrary discontinuity testing [38], [39], and finite mixture modelling via the EM algorithm [40], [41]---have been developed in statistics and accounting-econometrics but have not, to our knowledge, been combined as a three-method convergent framework for document-forensics threshold selection.
In this paper, we present a fully automated, end-to-end pipeline for detecting non-hand-signed CPA signatures in audit reports at scale. Our approach processes raw PDF documents through the following stages: (1) signature page identification using a Vision-Language Model (VLM); (2) signature region detection using a trained YOLOv11 object detector; (3) deep feature extraction via a pre-trained ResNet-50 convolutional neural network; (4) dual-descriptor similarity computation combining cosine similarity on deep embeddings with difference hash (dHash) distance; (5) threshold determination using three methodologically distinct methods---KDE antimode with a Hartigan unimodality test, Burgstahler-Dichev / McCrary discontinuity, and finite Beta mixture via EM with a logit-Gaussian robustness check---applied at both the signature level and the accountant level; and (6) validation against a pixel-identical anchor, a low-similarity anchor, and a replication-dominated Big-4 calibration firm.
The dual-descriptor verification is central to our contribution. Cosine similarity of deep feature embeddings captures high-level visual style similarity---it can identify signatures that share similar stroke patterns and spatial layouts---but cannot distinguish between a CPA who signs consistently and one whose signature is reproduced from a stored image. Perceptual hashing (specifically, difference hashing) encodes structural-level image gradients into compact binary fingerprints that are robust to scan noise but sensitive to substantive content differences. By requiring convergent evidence from both descriptors, we can differentiate style consistency (high cosine but divergent dHash) from image reproduction (high cosine with low dHash), resolving an ambiguity that neither descriptor can address alone.
A second distinctive feature is our framing of the calibration reference. One major Big-4 accounting firm in Taiwan (hereafter "Firm A") is widely recognized within the audit profession as making substantial use of non-hand-signing for the majority of its certifying partners, while not ruling out that a minority may continue to hand-sign some reports. We therefore treat Firm A as a replication-dominated calibration reference rather than a pure positive class. This framing is important because the statistical signature of a replication-dominated population is visible in our data: Firm A's per-signature cosine distribution is unimodal with a long left tail, 92.5% of Firm A signatures exceed cosine 0.95 but 7.5% fall below, and 32 of the 171 Firm A CPAs with enough signatures to enter our accountant-level analysis (of 180 Firm A CPAs in total) cluster into an accountant-level "middle band" rather than the high-replication mode. Adopting the replication-dominated framing---rather than a near-universal framing that would have to absorb these residuals as noise---ensures internal coherence among the visual-inspection evidence, the signature-level statistics, and the accountant-level mixture.
A third distinctive feature is our unit-of-analysis treatment.
Our three-method framework reveals an informative asymmetry between the signature level and the accountant level: per-signature similarity forms a continuous quality spectrum for which no two-mechanism mixture provides a good fit, whereas per-accountant aggregates are clustered into three recognizable groups (BIC-best K = 3).
The substantive reading is that pixel-level output quality is a continuous spectrum shaped by firm-specific reproduction technologies and scan conditions, while accountant-level aggregate behaviour is clustered but not sharply discrete---a given CPA tends to cluster into a dominant regime (high-replication, middle-band, or hand-signed-tendency), though the boundaries between regimes are smooth rather than discontinuous.
Among the three accountant-level methods, KDE antimode and the two mixture-based estimators converge within \sim 0.006 on a cosine threshold of approximately 0.975, while the Burgstahler-Dichev / McCrary discontinuity test finds no significant transition at the accountant level---an outcome consistent with smoothly mixed clusters rather than a failure of the method.
The two-dimensional GMM marginal crossings (cosine = 0.945, dHash = 8.10) are reported as a complementary cross-check rather than as the primary accountant-level threshold.
We apply this pipeline to 90,282 audit reports filed by publicly listed companies in Taiwan between 2013 and 2023, extracting and analyzing 182,328 individual CPA signatures from 758 unique accountants. To our knowledge, this represents the largest-scale forensic analysis of signature authenticity in financial documents reported in the literature.
The contributions of this paper are summarized as follows:
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Problem formulation. We formally define non-hand-signing detection as distinct from signature forgery detection and argue that it requires an analytical framework focused on intra-signer similarity distributions rather than genuine-versus-forged classification.
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End-to-end pipeline. We present a pipeline that processes raw PDF audit reports through VLM-based page identification, YOLO-based signature detection, deep feature extraction, and dual-descriptor similarity computation, with automated inference requiring no manual intervention after initial training and annotation.
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Dual-descriptor verification. We demonstrate that combining deep-feature cosine similarity with perceptual hashing resolves the fundamental ambiguity between style consistency and image reproduction, and we validate the backbone choice through an ablation study comparing three feature-extraction architectures.
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Three-method convergent threshold framework. We introduce a threshold-selection framework that applies three methodologically distinct methods---KDE antimode with Hartigan unimodality test, Burgstahler-Dichev / McCrary discontinuity, and EM-fitted Beta mixture with a logit-Gaussian robustness check---at both the signature and accountant levels, using the convergence (or principled divergence) across methods as diagnostic evidence about the mixture structure of the data.
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Continuous-quality / clustered-accountant finding. We empirically establish that per-signature similarity is a continuous quality spectrum poorly approximated by any two-mechanism mixture, whereas per-accountant aggregates cluster into three recognizable groups with smoothly mixed rather than sharply discrete boundaries---an asymmetry with direct implications for how threshold selection and mixture modelling should be applied in document forensics.
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Replication-dominated calibration methodology. We introduce a calibration strategy using a known-majority-positive reference group, distinguishing replication-dominated from replication-pure anchors; and we validate classification using byte-level pixel identity as an annotation-free gold positive, requiring no manual labeling.
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Large-scale empirical analysis. We report findings from the analysis of over 90,000 audit reports spanning a decade, providing the first large-scale empirical evidence on non-hand-signing practices in financial reporting under a methodology designed for peer-review defensibility.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section II reviews related work on signature verification, document forensics, perceptual hashing, and the statistical methods we adopt for threshold determination. Section III describes the proposed methodology. Section IV presents experimental results including the three-method convergent threshold analysis, accountant-level mixture, pixel-identity validation, and backbone ablation study. Section V discusses the implications and limitations of our findings. Section VI concludes with directions for future work.