gbanyan
d0bf2fe911
Phase 1 (Foundation) all 7 spike + foundation scripts committed. Phase 2 (Methodology rewrite) §III-G..L draft delivered; 5 open questions flagged for user decision before Phase 3. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
50 lines
2.9 KiB
Markdown
50 lines
2.9 KiB
Markdown
# STATE — Current snapshot
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**Date**: 2026-05-12
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**Active milestone**: Paper A v4.0 — Big-4 reframe
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**Active branch**: `paper-a-v4-big4` (12 commits ahead of `yolo-signature-pipeline`)
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**Active phase**: Phase 2 — Methodology rewrite, draft delivered, **awaiting user review of 5 open questions in `paper/v4/paper_a_methodology_v4_section_iii.md`** before Phase 3 begins
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## Recently completed
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**Phase 1 (Foundation, 7 spike + foundation scripts)**:
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- Script 32 (`e1d81e3`): non-Firm-A calibration verdict C
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- Script 33 (`8ac0988`): reverse-anchor PAPER_C_STRONG (directional ρ=+0.744)
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- Script 34 (`55f9f94`): Big-4 K=2 dip-test multimodal p<0.0001, bootstrap CI [0.974, 0.977] / [3.48, 3.97]
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- Script 35 (`55f9f94`): firm × cluster — Firm A 0% C1 / 82.5% C3, PwC 23.5% C1
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- Script 36 (`ccd9f23`): K=2 LOOO **UNSTABLE** (firm-mass conflation; max Δcos=0.028)
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- Script 37 (`92f1db8`): K=3 LOOO **PARTIAL** (component shape stable, membership ±5-13pp)
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- Script 38 (`bc36dcc`): convergence **STRONG** — 3 lenses pairwise ρ ≥ 0.879
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- Script 39 (`39575ce`): per-signature convergence **MODERATE** — κ=0.87 between per-CPA and per-sig K=3 fits
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- Script 40 (`338737d`): pixel-identity FAR = **0%** on n=262 ground-truth replicated
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**Phase 2 (Methodology rewrite)**: §III-G..L draft delivered at `paper/v4/paper_a_methodology_v4_section_iii.md` (commit on the same branch). Single coherent rewrite covering 6 sub-sections (G/H/I/J/K/L); cross-references to all 9 spike scripts; 5 open questions flagged at end of draft for user decision.
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## Pending — Phase 2 user review (BEFORE Phase 3)
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5 decisions needed from user before Phase 3 (Results regeneration) starts:
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1. §III-G scope justification — three-point argument enough, or add a fourth?
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2. §III-H Firm A phrasing — "case study of templated end" vs an alternative framing?
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3. §III-J K=3 vs K=2 selection — lean on LOOO (current draft) or strengthen BIC argument?
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4. §III-L hybrid classifier — keep inherited 5-way box rule, or commit to K=3 hard label as primary?
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5. Section IV table numbering scheme — confirm before Phase 3 builds tables.
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Plus: any prose-level edits the user wants on the §III draft.
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## Blockers
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None.
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## Open questions deferred from spike
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- Bootstrap stability of cosine and dHash crossings *jointly* (not just marginally) — addressed in Phase 1 if time permits
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- K=2 vs K=3 final choice for §III-J — both reported, but operational classifier needs to commit to one (recommend K=2 for interpretability; K=3 in supplementary)
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## Things to remember (per memory)
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- Provenance-verify all empirical claims against fresh sqlite/grep ([[feedback-provenance-fabrication]])
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- Don't mock the DB or use placeholders — every number must trace to a script + query
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- Partner Jimmy already proposed Big-4 direction (this is execution, not pitching a new direction)
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- Paper C standalone is shelved — folded into v4.0 §IV-K
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