Phase 6 round-6: soften firm-heterogeneity framing, fix DOCX table render
Framing softening (per partner tone decision: own the limitation rather than defend the strong claim). Abstract: "Firm heterogeneity is decisive ... consistent with firm-level template-like reuse" -> "The framework surfaces pronounced firm-level heterogeneity ... consistent with firm-level template-like reuse but not independently diagnostic, since descriptor-only data cannot separate reuse from digitisation-pipeline or signing-style homogeneity within a firm; we report it as a scope limitation rather than a mechanism finding." S V-H Limitations: new bullet "Mechanism attribution for the firm-level heterogeneity is not identifiable from descriptor-only data." enumerates three non-mutually-exclusive firm-level mechanisms (template-like reuse / digitisation-pipeline homogeneity / signing-style homogeneity), notes the (cosine, dHash) descriptor pair is by construction indifferent to which mechanism generated a near-identical pair, and lists what additional data would be needed for attribution. S VI Conclusion items (3) and (4): "firm heterogeneity quantification" -> "firm-level heterogeneity surfaced by the framework ... reported as a framework-discriminative observation rather than a mechanism finding"; item (4) expanded from template/stamp/document-production reuse alone to the three-mechanism scope, with explicit "not independently establishing" and S V-H cross-reference. DOCX export fix (export_v3.py): add missing LaTeX-to-Unicode tokens (\checkmark, \lvert/\rvert, \lVert/\rVert, \in, \notin, \max, \min, \log, \ln, \exp, \bullet) that were silently dropping content from Table III rows 2-4 (integer-jitter robustness check marks empty) and Table XVIII drift column (|Delta| empty). Rebuild Paper_A_IEEE_Access_Draft_v3.docx via export_v3.py and install copy as Paper_A_IEEE_Access_Draft_v4.0_20260515.docx (replaces prior pandoc-built v4 DOCX which had empty cells in every table header with LaTeX math and inconsistent column widths). All 43 tables now have non-empty cells with sub/superscript runs. Mirrored in paper_a_v4_combined.md for consistency with the single-file combined source. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -153,9 +153,19 @@ LATEX_TOKEN_REPLACEMENTS = [
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(r"\\leq(?![A-Za-z])", "≤"), (r"\\geq(?![A-Za-z])", "≥"),
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(r"\\neq(?![A-Za-z])", "≠"), (r"\\approx(?![A-Za-z])", "≈"),
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(r"\\equiv(?![A-Za-z])", "≡"), (r"\\sim(?![A-Za-z])", "~"),
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(r"\\in(?![A-Za-z])", "∈"), (r"\\notin(?![A-Za-z])", "∉"),
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(r"\\to(?![A-Za-z])", "→"), (r"\\rightarrow(?![A-Za-z])", "→"),
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(r"\\leftarrow(?![A-Za-z])", "←"), (r"\\Rightarrow(?![A-Za-z])", "⇒"),
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(r"\\Leftarrow(?![A-Za-z])", "⇐"),
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# Delimiters spelled as commands
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(r"\\lvert(?![A-Za-z])", "|"), (r"\\rvert(?![A-Za-z])", "|"),
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(r"\\lVert(?![A-Za-z])", "‖"), (r"\\rVert(?![A-Za-z])", "‖"),
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# Symbols / operators that linearise to text
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(r"\\checkmark(?![A-Za-z])", "✓"),
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(r"\\bullet(?![A-Za-z])", "•"),
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(r"\\max(?![A-Za-z])", "max"), (r"\\min(?![A-Za-z])", "min"),
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(r"\\log(?![A-Za-z])", "log"), (r"\\ln(?![A-Za-z])", "ln"),
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(r"\\exp(?![A-Za-z])", "exp"),
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# Binary operators
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(r"\\times(?![A-Za-z])", "×"), (r"\\cdot(?![A-Za-z])", "·"),
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(r"\\pm(?![A-Za-z])", "±"), (r"\\mp(?![A-Za-z])", "∓"),
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@@ -2,6 +2,6 @@
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<!-- IEEE Access target: <= 250 words, single paragraph -->
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Regulations require Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) to attest each audit report with a signature, but digitization makes it feasible to reuse a stored signature image across reports — through administrative stamping or firm-level electronic signing — thereby undermining individualized attestation. We build an end-to-end pipeline for screening such *non-hand-signed* signatures at scale: a Vision-Language Model identifies signature pages, YOLOv11 localizes signatures, ResNet-50 supplies deep features, and a dual-descriptor layer combines cosine similarity with an independent-minimum perceptual hash (dHash) to separate *style consistency* from *image reproduction*. Applied to 90,282 Taiwan audit reports (2013–2023), the pipeline yields 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs; primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs; 150,442 signatures). Distributional diagnostics show that the apparent multimodality of the descriptor distribution dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p$ rises to $0.35$), so no within-population bimodal antimode anchors the operational thresholds. We instead adopt an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units: per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ under the deployed any-pair high-confidence rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC+MC alarm). Firm heterogeneity is decisive: Firm A's per-document HC+MC inter-CPA proxy ICCR is $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D, and a per-signature logistic regression confirms the firm gap persists after controlling for pool size; under the deployed any-pair rule $77$–$99\%$ of inter-CPA collisions concentrate within the source firm — consistent with firm-level template-like reuse. We position the system as a specificity-proxy-anchored screening framework with human-in-the-loop review, not as a validated forensic detector; no calibrated error rates are reportable without signature-level ground truth.
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Regulations require Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) to attest each audit report with a signature, but digitization makes it feasible to reuse a stored signature image across reports — through administrative stamping or firm-level electronic signing — thereby undermining individualized attestation. We build an end-to-end pipeline for screening such *non-hand-signed* signatures at scale: a Vision-Language Model identifies signature pages, YOLOv11 localizes signatures, ResNet-50 supplies deep features, and a dual-descriptor layer combines cosine similarity with an independent-minimum perceptual hash (dHash) to separate *style consistency* from *image reproduction*. Applied to 90,282 Taiwan audit reports (2013–2023), the pipeline yields 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs; primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs; 150,442 signatures). Distributional diagnostics show that the apparent multimodality of the descriptor distribution dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p$ rises to $0.35$), so no within-population bimodal antimode anchors the operational thresholds. We instead adopt an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units: per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ under the deployed any-pair high-confidence rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC+MC alarm). The framework surfaces pronounced firm-level heterogeneity: Firm A's per-document HC+MC ICCR is $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D (gap persists after pool-size adjustment), and $77$–$99\%$ of inter-CPA collisions concentrate within the source firm. This contrast is consistent with firm-level template-like reuse but not independently diagnostic, since descriptor-only data cannot separate reuse from digitisation-pipeline or signing-style homogeneity within a firm; we report it as a scope limitation rather than a mechanism finding. We position the system as a specificity-proxy-anchored screening framework with human-in-the-loop review, not as a validated forensic detector; no calibrated error rates are reportable without signature-level ground truth.
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@@ -2,6 +2,6 @@
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We present a fully automated pipeline for screening non-hand-signed CPA signatures in Taiwan-listed financial audit reports, together with an anchor-calibrated screening framework that characterises the pipeline's operational behaviour at the Big-4 sub-corpus scope under explicit unsupervised assumptions. The pipeline processes raw PDFs through VLM-based page identification, YOLO-based signature detection, ResNet-50 feature extraction, and dual-descriptor (cosine + independent-minimum dHash) similarity computation. The operational output is the deployed five-way per-signature classifier with worst-case document-level aggregation (§III-H.1; calibrated in §III-L). Applied to 90,282 audit reports filed between 2013 and 2023, the pipeline extracts 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs, with the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs at accountant level; 150,442–150,453 signatures at signature level) as the primary analytical population.
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Our central methodological contributions are: (1) a composition decomposition that establishes the absence of a within-population bimodal antimode in the Big-4 descriptor distribution: the apparent multimodality dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p_{\text{median}} = 0.35$), so distributional "natural-threshold" framings of the deployed operating points are not empirically supported; (2) an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units of analysis — per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ for the deployed any-pair HC rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC$+$MC alarm) — with explicit terminological replacement of "FAR" by "ICCR" given the unsupervised setting; (3) firm heterogeneity quantification: logistic regression with pool-size adjustment gives odds ratios $0.053$, $0.010$, $0.027$ for Firms B/C/D relative to Firm A reference, indicating a large multiplicative effect that pool-size differences do not explain; (4) cross-firm hit matrix evidence that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with firm-specific template, stamp, or document-production reuse mechanisms; (5) K=3 mixture demoted from "three mechanism clusters" to a descriptive firm-compositional partition; (6) three feature-derived scores converging on the per-CPA descriptor-position ranking at Spearman $\rho \geq 0.879$, reported as internal consistency rather than external validation; (7) $0\%$ positive-anchor miss rate on 262 byte-identical Big-4 signatures with the conservative-subset caveat; and (8) explicit disclosure of each diagnostic's untested assumption (Appendix A Table A.II), positioning the system as an anchor-calibrated screening framework with human-in-the-loop review rather than as a validated forensic detector.
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Our central methodological contributions are: (1) a composition decomposition that establishes the absence of a within-population bimodal antimode in the Big-4 descriptor distribution: the apparent multimodality dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p_{\text{median}} = 0.35$), so distributional "natural-threshold" framings of the deployed operating points are not empirically supported; (2) an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units of analysis — per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ for the deployed any-pair HC rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC$+$MC alarm) — with explicit terminological replacement of "FAR" by "ICCR" given the unsupervised setting; (3) firm-level heterogeneity surfaced by the framework: logistic regression with pool-size adjustment gives odds ratios $0.053$, $0.010$, $0.027$ for Firms B/C/D relative to Firm A reference, a contrast that pool-size differences do not explain and that we report as a framework-discriminative observation rather than a mechanism finding (§V-H); (4) cross-firm hit matrix evidence that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with — but not independently establishing — firm-level template-like reuse, digitisation-pipeline homogeneity, or signing-style similarity, which descriptor-only data cannot separate (§V-H); (5) K=3 mixture demoted from "three mechanism clusters" to a descriptive firm-compositional partition; (6) three feature-derived scores converging on the per-CPA descriptor-position ranking at Spearman $\rho \geq 0.879$, reported as internal consistency rather than external validation; (7) $0\%$ positive-anchor miss rate on 262 byte-identical Big-4 signatures with the conservative-subset caveat; and (8) explicit disclosure of each diagnostic's untested assumption (Appendix A Table A.II), positioning the system as an anchor-calibrated screening framework with human-in-the-loop review rather than as a validated forensic detector.
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Future work falls in four directions. *First*, a small-scale human-rated labelled set would enable direct ROC optimisation and provide the signature-level ground truth that the present analysis fundamentally lacks; without such ground truth, no true error rates can be reported. *Second*, the within-firm collision concentration documented in §III-L.4 (any-pair $76.7$–$98.8\%$ across Big-4; same-pair joint $97.0$–$99.96\%$) invites a separate study to distinguish deliberate template sharing from passive firm-level production artefacts (shared scanners, common form templates, identical report-generation infrastructure) — a question the inter-CPA-anchor analysis alone cannot resolve. *Third*, the descriptive Firm A versus Firms B/C/D contrast (per-document HC$+$MC alarm $0.62$ vs $0.09$–$0.16$) — together with the byte-level evidence of 145 pixel-identical signatures across $\sim 50$ distinct Firm A partners — invites a companion analysis examining whether such firm-level signing patterns correlate with established audit-quality measures. *Fourth*, generalisation to mid- and small-firm contexts requires extending the anchor-based ICCR framework to scopes where firm-level LOOO folds are not available; the §III-I.4 composition diagnostics already document that the absence of within-population bimodality holds across the tested eligible scopes, so the calibration approach in principle generalises, but a full extension with cluster-robust uncertainty quantification is left as future work.
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@@ -44,6 +44,8 @@ Several limitations should be transparent. We group them into primary methodolog
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*Inter-CPA negative-anchor assumption is partially violated and the violation is firm-dependent.* The cross-firm hit matrix of §III-L.4 shows that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with firm-specific template, stamp, or document-production reuse. The inter-CPA-as-negative assumption is therefore not exactly satisfied — some inter-CPA pairs may share firm-level templates rather than being independent random matches. Our reported per-comparison ICCRs are best read as specificity-proxy rates under a partially-violated assumption, not as calibrated FARs. Because the violation is firm-dependent, Firm A's per-firm ICCR is more contaminated by within-firm sharing than Firms B/C/D's; the per-firm B/C/D rates of $0.09$–$0.16$ may therefore be less contaminated than the pooled rate, and the Firm A vs Firms B/C/D contrast reflects both genuine firm heterogeneity and a firm-dependent proxy-contamination gradient.
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*Mechanism attribution for the firm-level heterogeneity is not identifiable from descriptor-only data.* The observed firm-level contrast (Firm A's per-document HC$+$MC ICCR of $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D; within-firm collision concentration $77$–$99\%$ under the deployed any-pair rule; byte-identical evidence of §IV-H) is consistent with at least three non-mutually-exclusive firm-level mechanisms: (i) template, stamp, or e-signature production reuse; (ii) digitisation-pipeline homogeneity — shared scanners, common PDF generation infrastructure, identical compression and form-template settings — that systematically inflates image-descriptor similarity without signature replication; and (iii) signing-style or training homogeneity that produces correlated handwritten signatures within a firm. The descriptor pair (cosine, dHash) operates at the image-similarity level and is, by construction, indifferent to which mechanism generated a given near-identical pair. We therefore report the firm contrast as a methodological observation — the framework discriminates at firm-level resolution — rather than as a mechanism finding. The byte-identical Firm A signatures across $\sim 50$ distinct partners (§IV-H, §V-C) provide direct evidence for (i) at Firm A specifically, but do not exclude additive contribution from (ii) or (iii); the milder within-firm collision patterns at Firms B/C/D are individually consistent with all three mechanisms. Image-acquisition metadata (scanner identifiers, PDF generator fingerprints, compression-codec markers), partner-level intent records, or controlled hand-signed baselines would be needed to attribute the contrast across (i), (ii), and (iii).
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*Scope.* The primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus. We did not perform the full per-signature pool-normalised ICCR analysis at the full $n = 686$ scope; the §IV-K full-dataset Spearman re-run shows the K=3 $+$ deployed box-rule rank-convergence is preserved at $n = 686$ but does not establish portability of the Big-4 operational ICCRs, the LOOO firm-fold structure, or the five-way operational classifier at the broader scope.
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**Secondary scope and validation caveats.**
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@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
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<!-- IEEE Access target: <= 250 words, single paragraph -->
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Regulations require Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) to attest each audit report with a signature, but digitization makes it feasible to reuse a stored signature image across reports — through administrative stamping or firm-level electronic signing — thereby undermining individualized attestation. We build an end-to-end pipeline for screening such *non-hand-signed* signatures at scale: a Vision-Language Model identifies signature pages, YOLOv11 localizes signatures, ResNet-50 supplies deep features, and a dual-descriptor layer combines cosine similarity with an independent-minimum perceptual hash (dHash) to separate *style consistency* from *image reproduction*. Applied to 90,282 Taiwan audit reports (2013–2023), the pipeline yields 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs; primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs; 150,442 signatures). Distributional diagnostics show that the apparent multimodality of the descriptor distribution dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p$ rises to $0.35$), so no within-population bimodal antimode anchors the operational thresholds. We instead adopt an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units: per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ under the deployed any-pair high-confidence rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC+MC alarm). Firm heterogeneity is decisive: Firm A's per-document HC+MC inter-CPA proxy ICCR is $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D, and a per-signature logistic regression confirms the firm gap persists after controlling for pool size; under the deployed any-pair rule $77$–$99\%$ of inter-CPA collisions concentrate within the source firm — consistent with firm-level template-like reuse. We position the system as a specificity-proxy-anchored screening framework with human-in-the-loop review, not as a validated forensic detector; no calibrated error rates are reportable without signature-level ground truth.
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Regulations require Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) to attest each audit report with a signature, but digitization makes it feasible to reuse a stored signature image across reports — through administrative stamping or firm-level electronic signing — thereby undermining individualized attestation. We build an end-to-end pipeline for screening such *non-hand-signed* signatures at scale: a Vision-Language Model identifies signature pages, YOLOv11 localizes signatures, ResNet-50 supplies deep features, and a dual-descriptor layer combines cosine similarity with an independent-minimum perceptual hash (dHash) to separate *style consistency* from *image reproduction*. Applied to 90,282 Taiwan audit reports (2013–2023), the pipeline yields 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs; primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs; 150,442 signatures). Distributional diagnostics show that the apparent multimodality of the descriptor distribution dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p$ rises to $0.35$), so no within-population bimodal antimode anchors the operational thresholds. We instead adopt an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units: per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ under the deployed any-pair high-confidence rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC+MC alarm). The framework surfaces pronounced firm-level heterogeneity: Firm A's per-document HC+MC ICCR is $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D (gap persists after pool-size adjustment), and $77$–$99\%$ of inter-CPA collisions concentrate within the source firm. This contrast is consistent with firm-level template-like reuse but not independently diagnostic, since descriptor-only data cannot separate reuse from digitisation-pipeline or signing-style homogeneity within a firm; we report it as a scope limitation rather than a mechanism finding. We position the system as a specificity-proxy-anchored screening framework with human-in-the-loop review, not as a validated forensic detector; no calibrated error rates are reportable without signature-level ground truth.
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<!-- Word count: 247 -->
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@@ -1089,6 +1089,8 @@ Several limitations should be transparent. We group them into primary methodolog
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*Inter-CPA negative-anchor assumption is partially violated and the violation is firm-dependent.* The cross-firm hit matrix of §III-L.4 shows that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with firm-specific template, stamp, or document-production reuse. The inter-CPA-as-negative assumption is therefore not exactly satisfied — some inter-CPA pairs may share firm-level templates rather than being independent random matches. Our reported per-comparison ICCRs are best read as specificity-proxy rates under a partially-violated assumption, not as calibrated FARs. Because the violation is firm-dependent, Firm A's per-firm ICCR is more contaminated by within-firm sharing than Firms B/C/D's; the per-firm B/C/D rates of $0.09$–$0.16$ may therefore be less contaminated than the pooled rate, and the Firm A vs Firms B/C/D contrast reflects both genuine firm heterogeneity and a firm-dependent proxy-contamination gradient.
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*Mechanism attribution for the firm-level heterogeneity is not identifiable from descriptor-only data.* The observed firm-level contrast (Firm A's per-document HC$+$MC ICCR of $0.62$ versus $0.09$–$0.16$ at Firms B/C/D; within-firm collision concentration $77$–$99\%$ under the deployed any-pair rule; byte-identical evidence of §IV-H) is consistent with at least three non-mutually-exclusive firm-level mechanisms: (i) template, stamp, or e-signature production reuse; (ii) digitisation-pipeline homogeneity — shared scanners, common PDF generation infrastructure, identical compression and form-template settings — that systematically inflates image-descriptor similarity without signature replication; and (iii) signing-style or training homogeneity that produces correlated handwritten signatures within a firm. The descriptor pair (cosine, dHash) operates at the image-similarity level and is, by construction, indifferent to which mechanism generated a given near-identical pair. We therefore report the firm contrast as a methodological observation — the framework discriminates at firm-level resolution — rather than as a mechanism finding. The byte-identical Firm A signatures across $\sim 50$ distinct partners (§IV-H, §V-C) provide direct evidence for (i) at Firm A specifically, but do not exclude additive contribution from (ii) or (iii); the milder within-firm collision patterns at Firms B/C/D are individually consistent with all three mechanisms. Image-acquisition metadata (scanner identifiers, PDF generator fingerprints, compression-codec markers), partner-level intent records, or controlled hand-signed baselines would be needed to attribute the contrast across (i), (ii), and (iii).
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*Scope.* The primary analyses are scoped to the Big-4 sub-corpus. We did not perform the full per-signature pool-normalised ICCR analysis at the full $n = 686$ scope; the §IV-K full-dataset Spearman re-run shows the K=3 $+$ deployed box-rule rank-convergence is preserved at $n = 686$ but does not establish portability of the Big-4 operational ICCRs, the LOOO firm-fold structure, or the five-way operational classifier at the broader scope.
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**Secondary scope and validation caveats.**
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@@ -1124,7 +1126,7 @@ Several limitations should be transparent. We group them into primary methodolog
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We present a fully automated pipeline for screening non-hand-signed CPA signatures in Taiwan-listed financial audit reports, together with an anchor-calibrated screening framework that characterises the pipeline's operational behaviour at the Big-4 sub-corpus scope under explicit unsupervised assumptions. The pipeline processes raw PDFs through VLM-based page identification, YOLO-based signature detection, ResNet-50 feature extraction, and dual-descriptor (cosine + independent-minimum dHash) similarity computation. The operational output is the deployed five-way per-signature classifier with worst-case document-level aggregation (§III-H.1; calibrated in §III-L). Applied to 90,282 audit reports filed between 2013 and 2023, the pipeline extracts 182,328 signatures from 758 CPAs, with the Big-4 sub-corpus (437 CPAs at accountant level; 150,442–150,453 signatures at signature level) as the primary analytical population.
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Our central methodological contributions are: (1) a composition decomposition that establishes the absence of a within-population bimodal antimode in the Big-4 descriptor distribution: the apparent multimodality dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p_{\text{median}} = 0.35$), so distributional "natural-threshold" framings of the deployed operating points are not empirically supported; (2) an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units of analysis — per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ for the deployed any-pair HC rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC$+$MC alarm) — with explicit terminological replacement of "FAR" by "ICCR" given the unsupervised setting; (3) firm heterogeneity quantification: logistic regression with pool-size adjustment gives odds ratios $0.053$, $0.010$, $0.027$ for Firms B/C/D relative to Firm A reference, indicating a large multiplicative effect that pool-size differences do not explain; (4) cross-firm hit matrix evidence that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with firm-specific template, stamp, or document-production reuse mechanisms; (5) K=3 mixture demoted from "three mechanism clusters" to a descriptive firm-compositional partition; (6) three feature-derived scores converging on the per-CPA descriptor-position ranking at Spearman $\rho \geq 0.879$, reported as internal consistency rather than external validation; (7) $0\%$ positive-anchor miss rate on 262 byte-identical Big-4 signatures with the conservative-subset caveat; and (8) explicit disclosure of each diagnostic's untested assumption (Appendix A Table A.II), positioning the system as an anchor-calibrated screening framework with human-in-the-loop review rather than as a validated forensic detector.
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Our central methodological contributions are: (1) a composition decomposition that establishes the absence of a within-population bimodal antimode in the Big-4 descriptor distribution: the apparent multimodality dissolves under joint firm-mean centring and integer-tie jitter ($p_{\text{median}} = 0.35$), so distributional "natural-threshold" framings of the deployed operating points are not empirically supported; (2) an anchor-based inter-CPA coincidence-rate (ICCR) calibration at three units of analysis — per-comparison ($0.0006$ at cos$>0.95$; $0.0013$ at dHash$\leq 5$; $0.00014$ jointly), pool-normalised per-signature ($0.11$ for the deployed any-pair HC rule), and per-document ($0.34$ for the operational HC$+$MC alarm) — with explicit terminological replacement of "FAR" by "ICCR" given the unsupervised setting; (3) firm-level heterogeneity surfaced by the framework: logistic regression with pool-size adjustment gives odds ratios $0.053$, $0.010$, $0.027$ for Firms B/C/D relative to Firm A reference, a contrast that pool-size differences do not explain and that we report as a framework-discriminative observation rather than a mechanism finding (§V-H); (4) cross-firm hit matrix evidence that under the deployed any-pair rule, within-firm collision concentration is $98.8\%$ at Firm A and $76.7$–$83.7\%$ at Firms B/C/D (the stricter same-pair joint event saturates at $97.0$–$99.96\%$ within-firm across all four firms), consistent with — but not independently establishing — firm-level template-like reuse, digitisation-pipeline homogeneity, or signing-style similarity, which descriptor-only data cannot separate (§V-H); (5) K=3 mixture demoted from "three mechanism clusters" to a descriptive firm-compositional partition; (6) three feature-derived scores converging on the per-CPA descriptor-position ranking at Spearman $\rho \geq 0.879$, reported as internal consistency rather than external validation; (7) $0\%$ positive-anchor miss rate on 262 byte-identical Big-4 signatures with the conservative-subset caveat; and (8) explicit disclosure of each diagnostic's untested assumption (Appendix A Table A.II), positioning the system as an anchor-calibrated screening framework with human-in-the-loop review rather than as a validated forensic detector.
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Future work falls in four directions. *First*, a small-scale human-rated labelled set would enable direct ROC optimisation and provide the signature-level ground truth that the present analysis fundamentally lacks; without such ground truth, no true error rates can be reported. *Second*, the within-firm collision concentration documented in §III-L.4 (any-pair $76.7$–$98.8\%$ across Big-4; same-pair joint $97.0$–$99.96\%$) invites a separate study to distinguish deliberate template sharing from passive firm-level production artefacts (shared scanners, common form templates, identical report-generation infrastructure) — a question the inter-CPA-anchor analysis alone cannot resolve. *Third*, the descriptive Firm A versus Firms B/C/D contrast (per-document HC$+$MC alarm $0.62$ vs $0.09$–$0.16$) — together with the byte-level evidence of 145 pixel-identical signatures across $\sim 50$ distinct Firm A partners — invites a companion analysis examining whether such firm-level signing patterns correlate with established audit-quality measures. *Fourth*, generalisation to mid- and small-firm contexts requires extending the anchor-based ICCR framework to scopes where firm-level LOOO folds are not available; the §III-I.4 composition diagnostics already document that the absence of within-population bimodality holds across the tested eligible scopes, so the calibration approach in principle generalises, but a full extension with cluster-robust uncertainty quantification is left as future work.
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