Spike checkpoint addressing codex round-31 review of Script 43:
- 44 (firm-matched-pool regression): logistic hit ~ firm + log(pool_size)
refutes the "Firm A excess is pool-size confound" reviewer attack.
After controlling for log(pool_size), Firm B/C/D ORs are 0.053 /
0.010 / 0.027 vs Firm A reference (z = 62 / 60 / 42 sigma). Cross-
firm hit matrix shows 98-100% of any-pair hits have candidates
from the SAME firm (different CPA), confirming within-firm cross-
CPA template sharing as the dominant collision mechanism.
- 45 (full 5-way doc FAR): per-signature and per-document FAR for
three alarm definitions (HC / HC+MC / HC+MC+HSC). Per-document
HC alarm FAR=17.97%, HC+MC alarm FAR=33.75% (operational rule),
per-firm doc FAR for Firm A 62%, B/C/D 9-16%.
Together these resolve codex round-31's three main concerns:
firm/pool confound, documentation completeness on MC band, and
the operational specificity ceiling. Companion artefacts in
reports/v4_big4/{firm_matched_pool, doc_level_far_full}/.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
gbanyan
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