51d15b32a5
Partner v4 (signature_paper_draft_v4) proposed 3 substantive improvements; partner confirmed the 2013-2019 restriction was an error (sample stays 2013-2023). The remaining suggestions are adopted with our own data. ## New scripts - Script 22 (partner ranking): ranks all Big-4 auditor-years by mean max-cosine. Firm A occupies 95.9% of top-10% (base 27.8%), 3.5x concentration ratio. Stable across 2013-2023 (88-100% per year). - Script 23 (intra-report consistency): for each 2-signer report, classify both signatures and check agreement. Firm A agrees 89.9% vs 62-67% at other Big-4. 87.5% Firm A reports have BOTH signers non-hand-signed; only 4 reports (0.01%) both hand-signed. ## New methodology additions - III-G: explicit within-auditor-year no-mixing identification assumption (supported by Firm A interview evidence). - III-H: 4th Firm A validation line: threshold-independent evidence from partner ranking + intra-report consistency. ## New results section IV-H (threshold-independent validation) - IV-H.1: Firm A year-by-year cosine<0.95 rate. 2013-2019 mean=8.26%, 2020-2023 mean=6.96%, 2023 lowest (3.75%). Stability contradicts partner's hypothesis that 2020+ electronic systems increase heterogeneity -- data shows opposite (electronic systems more consistent than physical stamping). - IV-H.2: partner ranking top-K tables (pooled + year-by-year). - IV-H.3: intra-report consistency per-firm table. ## Renumbering - Section H (was Classification Results) -> I - Section I (was Ablation) -> J - Tables XIII-XVI new (yearly stability, top-K pooled, top-10% per-year, intra-report), XVII = classification (was XII), XVIII = ablation (was XIII). These threshold-independent analyses address the codex review concern about circular validation by providing benchmark evidence that does not depend on any threshold calibrated to Firm A itself. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
283 lines
11 KiB
Python
283 lines
11 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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Script 23: Intra-Report Consistency Check (per Partner v4 Section F.4)
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======================================================================
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Taiwanese statutory audit reports are co-signed by two engagement partners
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(primary + secondary). Under firm-wide stamping practice, both signatures
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on the same report should be classified as non-hand-signed.
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This script:
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1. Identifies reports with exactly 2 signatures in the DB.
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2. Classifies each signature using the dual-descriptor thresholds of the
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paper (cosine > 0.95 AND dHash_indep <= 8 = high-confidence replication).
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3. Reports intra-report agreement per firm.
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4. Flags disagreement cases for sensitivity analysis.
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Output:
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reports/intra_report/intra_report_report.md
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reports/intra_report/intra_report_results.json
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reports/intra_report/intra_report_disagreements.csv
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"""
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import sqlite3
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import json
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import numpy as np
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from pathlib import Path
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from datetime import datetime
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from collections import defaultdict
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DB = '/Volumes/NV2/PDF-Processing/signature-analysis/signature_analysis.db'
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OUT = Path('/Volumes/NV2/PDF-Processing/signature-analysis/reports/'
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'intra_report')
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OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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BIG4 = ['勤業眾信聯合', '安侯建業聯合', '資誠聯合', '安永聯合']
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def classify_signature(cos, dhash_indep):
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"""Return one of: high_conf_non_hand_signed, moderate_non_hand_signed,
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style_consistency, uncertain, likely_hand_signed,
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unknown (if missing data)."""
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if cos is None:
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return 'unknown'
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if cos > 0.95 and dhash_indep is not None and dhash_indep <= 5:
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return 'high_conf_non_hand_signed'
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if cos > 0.95 and dhash_indep is not None and 5 < dhash_indep <= 15:
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return 'moderate_non_hand_signed'
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if cos > 0.95 and dhash_indep is not None and dhash_indep > 15:
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return 'style_consistency'
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if 0.837 < cos <= 0.95:
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return 'uncertain'
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if cos <= 0.837:
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return 'likely_hand_signed'
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return 'unknown'
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def binary_bucket(label):
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"""Collapse to binary: non_hand_signed vs hand_signed vs other."""
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if label in ('high_conf_non_hand_signed', 'moderate_non_hand_signed'):
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return 'non_hand_signed'
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if label == 'likely_hand_signed':
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return 'hand_signed'
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if label == 'style_consistency':
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return 'style_consistency'
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return 'uncertain'
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def firm_bucket(firm):
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if firm == '勤業眾信聯合':
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return 'Deloitte (Firm A)'
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elif firm == '安侯建業聯合':
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return 'KPMG'
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elif firm == '資誠聯合':
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return 'PwC'
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elif firm == '安永聯合':
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return 'EY'
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return 'Other / Non-Big-4'
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def load_two_signer_reports():
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conn = sqlite3.connect(DB)
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cur = conn.cursor()
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# Select reports that have exactly 2 signatures with complete data
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cur.execute('''
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WITH report_counts AS (
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SELECT source_pdf, COUNT(*) AS n_sigs
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FROM signatures
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WHERE max_similarity_to_same_accountant IS NOT NULL
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GROUP BY source_pdf
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)
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SELECT s.source_pdf, s.signature_id, s.assigned_accountant, a.firm,
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s.max_similarity_to_same_accountant,
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s.min_dhash_independent, s.sig_index, s.year_month
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FROM signatures s
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LEFT JOIN accountants a ON s.assigned_accountant = a.name
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JOIN report_counts rc ON rc.source_pdf = s.source_pdf
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WHERE rc.n_sigs = 2
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AND s.max_similarity_to_same_accountant IS NOT NULL
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ORDER BY s.source_pdf, s.sig_index
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''')
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rows = cur.fetchall()
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conn.close()
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return rows
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def main():
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print('=' * 70)
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print('Script 23: Intra-Report Consistency Check')
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print('=' * 70)
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rows = load_two_signer_reports()
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print(f'\nLoaded {len(rows):,} signatures from 2-signer reports')
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# Group by source_pdf
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by_pdf = defaultdict(list)
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for r in rows:
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by_pdf[r[0]].append({
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'sig_id': r[1], 'accountant': r[2], 'firm': r[3] or '(unknown)',
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'cos': r[4], 'dhash': r[5], 'sig_index': r[6], 'year_month': r[7],
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})
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reports = [{'pdf': pdf, 'sigs': sigs}
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for pdf, sigs in by_pdf.items() if len(sigs) == 2]
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print(f'Total 2-signer reports: {len(reports):,}')
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# Classify each signature and check agreement
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results = {
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'total_reports': len(reports),
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'by_firm': defaultdict(lambda: {
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'total': 0,
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'both_non_hand_signed': 0,
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'both_hand_signed': 0,
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'both_style_consistency': 0,
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'both_uncertain': 0,
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'mixed': 0,
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'mixed_details': defaultdict(int),
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}),
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}
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disagreements = []
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for rep in reports:
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s1, s2 = rep['sigs']
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l1 = classify_signature(s1['cos'], s1['dhash'])
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l2 = classify_signature(s2['cos'], s2['dhash'])
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b1, b2 = binary_bucket(l1), binary_bucket(l2)
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# Determine report-level firm (usually both signers from same firm)
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firm1 = firm_bucket(s1['firm'])
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firm2 = firm_bucket(s2['firm'])
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firm = firm1 if firm1 == firm2 else f'{firm1}+{firm2}'
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bucket = results['by_firm'][firm]
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bucket['total'] += 1
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if b1 == b2 == 'non_hand_signed':
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bucket['both_non_hand_signed'] += 1
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elif b1 == b2 == 'hand_signed':
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bucket['both_hand_signed'] += 1
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elif b1 == b2 == 'style_consistency':
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bucket['both_style_consistency'] += 1
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elif b1 == b2 == 'uncertain':
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bucket['both_uncertain'] += 1
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else:
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bucket['mixed'] += 1
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combo = tuple(sorted([b1, b2]))
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bucket['mixed_details'][str(combo)] += 1
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disagreements.append({
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'pdf': rep['pdf'],
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'firm': firm,
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'sig1': {'accountant': s1['accountant'], 'cos': s1['cos'],
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'dhash': s1['dhash'], 'label': l1},
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'sig2': {'accountant': s2['accountant'], 'cos': s2['cos'],
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'dhash': s2['dhash'], 'label': l2},
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'year_month': s1['year_month'],
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})
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# Print summary
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print('\n--- Per-firm agreement ---')
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for firm, d in sorted(results['by_firm'].items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]['total']):
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agree = (d['both_non_hand_signed'] + d['both_hand_signed']
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+ d['both_style_consistency'] + d['both_uncertain'])
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rate = agree / d['total'] if d['total'] else 0
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print(f' {firm}: total={d["total"]:,}, agree={agree} '
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f'({rate*100:.2f}%), mixed={d["mixed"]}')
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print(f' both_non_hand_signed={d["both_non_hand_signed"]}, '
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f'both_uncertain={d["both_uncertain"]}, '
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f'both_style_consistency={d["both_style_consistency"]}, '
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f'both_hand_signed={d["both_hand_signed"]}')
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# Write disagreements CSV (first 500)
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csv_path = OUT / 'intra_report_disagreements.csv'
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with open(csv_path, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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f.write('pdf,firm,year_month,acc1,cos1,dhash1,label1,'
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'acc2,cos2,dhash2,label2\n')
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for d in disagreements[:500]:
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f.write(f"{d['pdf']},{d['firm']},{d['year_month']},"
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f"{d['sig1']['accountant']},{d['sig1']['cos']:.4f},"
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f"{d['sig1']['dhash']},{d['sig1']['label']},"
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f"{d['sig2']['accountant']},{d['sig2']['cos']:.4f},"
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f"{d['sig2']['dhash']},{d['sig2']['label']}\n")
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print(f'\nCSV: {csv_path} (first 500 of {len(disagreements)} disagreements)')
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# Convert for JSON
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summary = {
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'generated_at': datetime.now().isoformat(),
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'total_reports': len(reports),
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'total_disagreements': len(disagreements),
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'by_firm': {},
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}
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for firm, d in results['by_firm'].items():
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agree = (d['both_non_hand_signed'] + d['both_hand_signed']
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+ d['both_style_consistency'] + d['both_uncertain'])
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summary['by_firm'][firm] = {
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'total': d['total'],
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'both_non_hand_signed': d['both_non_hand_signed'],
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'both_hand_signed': d['both_hand_signed'],
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'both_style_consistency': d['both_style_consistency'],
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'both_uncertain': d['both_uncertain'],
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'mixed': d['mixed'],
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'agreement_rate': float(agree / d['total']) if d['total'] else 0,
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'mixed_details': dict(d['mixed_details']),
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}
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with open(OUT / 'intra_report_results.json', 'w') as f:
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json.dump(summary, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)
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print(f'JSON: {OUT / "intra_report_results.json"}')
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# Markdown
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md = [
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'# Intra-Report Consistency Report',
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f"Generated: {datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')}",
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'',
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'## Method',
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'',
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'* 2-signer reports (primary + secondary engagement partner).',
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'* Each signature classified using the dual-descriptor rules of the',
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' paper (cos > 0.95 AND dHash_indep ≤ 5 = high-confidence replication;',
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' dHash 6-15 = moderate; > 15 = style consistency; cos ≤ 0.837 = likely',
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' hand-signed; otherwise uncertain).',
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'* For each report, both signature-level labels are compared.',
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' A report is "in agreement" if both fall in the same coarse bucket',
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' (non-hand-signed = high+moderate combined, style_consistency,',
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' uncertain, or hand-signed); otherwise "mixed".',
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'',
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f'Total 2-signer reports analyzed: **{len(reports):,}**',
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'',
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'## Per-firm agreement',
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'',
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'| Firm | Total | Both non-hand-signed | Both style | Both uncertain | Both hand-signed | Mixed | Agreement rate |',
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'|------|-------|----------------------|------------|----------------|------------------|-------|----------------|',
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]
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for firm, d in sorted(summary['by_firm'].items(),
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key=lambda x: -x[1]['total']):
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md.append(
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f"| {firm} | {d['total']} | {d['both_non_hand_signed']} | "
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f"{d['both_style_consistency']} | {d['both_uncertain']} | "
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f"{d['both_hand_signed']} | {d['mixed']} | "
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f"**{d['agreement_rate']*100:.2f}%** |"
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)
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md += [
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'',
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'## Interpretation',
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'',
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'Under firmwide stamping practice the two engagement partners on a',
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'given report should both exhibit high-confidence non-hand-signed',
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'classifications. High intra-report agreement at Firm A (Deloitte) is',
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'consistent with uniform firm-level stamping; declining agreement at',
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'the other Big-4 firms reflects the interview evidence that stamping',
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'was applied only to a subset of partners.',
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'',
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'Mixed-classification reports (one signer non-hand-signed, the other',
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'hand-signed or style-consistent) are flagged for sensitivity review.',
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'Absent firmwide homogeneity, one would expect substantial mixed-rate',
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'contamination even at Firm A; the observed Firm A mixed rate is a',
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'direct empirical check on the identification assumption used in the',
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'threshold calibration.',
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]
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(OUT / 'intra_report_report.md').write_text('\n'.join(md), encoding='utf-8')
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print(f'Report: {OUT / "intra_report_report.md"}')
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if __name__ == '__main__':
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main()
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