pdf_signature_extraction

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Author	SHA1	Message	Date
gbanyan	cb38d413ad	Paper A v13 rev9: sensitivity surface + honesty fixes (GPT-5.5 hostile review) Pre-emptively address the three residual points from a hostile GPT-5.5 reviewer pass that rev8 had not fully closed (the rest of that review matched the already-applied fusion revision): - Sensitivity surface (Major 5): new Figure 6 maps the deployed rule over the full (cosine cut x dHash cut) plane - clean-group flag rate and the Firm A-minus-B/C/D contrast. Shows no cliff at (0.95, dHash<=5), contrast >45pp across a broad region (58pp at 0.97/dHash<=3), and that extending to the MC bound (dHash<=15) halves the contrast - so the thresholds are not cherry-picked and the weaker MC band is shown, not hidden. Reproducible via make_fig6_sensitivity.py (DB columns only). - Soften "reuse-dominated" (Major 1): the assertion that Firm A "is" a reuse-dominated population now reads "behaves in the screen as," explicitly resting on interviews + byte-identity rather than per-signature ground truth; two other uses made conditional/generic. - Shared-pipeline contamination of ICCR (Major 2): Sec III-E now names the shared within-firm imaging pipeline (scanners, PDF assembly, red-stamp removal) as a channel that can lift the inter-CPA rate above true chance, distinct from "shared template," supported by the Sec V-B pipeline audit; bias direction (higher floor) keeps the Firm-A contrast conservative. rev9 docx rebuilt (6 figures embedded). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Qn59FdF9JMyfFg3sjcUNNG	2026-06-23 14:59:55 +08:00
gbanyan	da455791de	Paper A v13 rev8: fusion-review revision (29 items) + verified data analysis Address all 29 items from the fused reviewer report (Gemini 3.1 Pro + ChatGPT 5.5 + Opus 4.8): 3 fatal, 4 severe, arbitration A/B, 5 fusion-new, 15 minor. All new numbers computed from signature_analysis.db; nothing fabricated. Claim honesty (F1/F3/F4/F7/G3): - Retract all "139x the floor" comparisons; ICCR -> between-accountant specificity proxy throughout; state within-accountant FPR is not estimable and ICCR is not even a bound (anti-conservative direction). - Firm A reframed as quasi-positive known-positive benchmark (not blinded). - byte-identity recast as prevalence signal, not a recall/sanity check. - tunable -> single-direction conservativeness dial (no P-R frontier). New data analysis (verified, bit-reproducible via committed scripts): - F2/G1 (Sec V-B): 880-PDF imaging-pipeline audit (Table V) - plain scans 82% (2013) -> 1% (2021); producer strings name scanner hardware (Fuji Xerox D125 etc.); substrate transforms at 2020/21 = named confound. - F5 (Sec IV-C): four robustness checks - pool-size stratification, accountant-clustered bootstrap (gap 53.7pp [49.5,57.5]), firm+year FE logistic (B/C/D OR 0.06-0.12), leave-one-year-out (gap 53.1-54.9pp). - byte-identity era split: 30 scan-era (18 Firm A, pipeline-robust) vs 232 digital-era (detectability-inflated, hedged). - G5: archive-wide 888 expected chance HC flags [677,1098]. - M4: Figure 3 replaced with real 2D density (n=150,441). Structure/minor: abstract restructured (M1); operational definition (M2); interview disclaimer (M3); Threats to Validity subsection (M8); review protocol framed as design not evidence (M9); N reconciliations (M10/M11); Table II-c 2020-23 five-way (M12); Section refs, American spelling, notation table (M5/M13/M15); reference URLs verified (M14). Open (author-only): placeholders (M13), II-b/IV table merge (M15). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Qn59FdF9JMyfFg3sjcUNNG	2026-06-23 14:36:51 +08:00
gbanyan	66c9194fcf	Paper A v13: filled submission draft (rev7) + reproducible build bundle Fill all 18 placeholders in the condensed v13 submission draft with data verified against the analysis DB and LOCKED canonical scripts; close 12/13 co-author review items (only #8b protocol first-run open). Key changes (need co-author sign-off; see handoff doc): - Firm A out-of-sample HC 0.01% -> 0.42% (buggy 0.0001 from Script 49 same-pair bug, propagated v4.2->v13; never reuse 0.0001) - §III-D empty cell ~=0 -> 7,681 honest reframe (not degenerate crops) - low cosine cut 0.837 -> 0.8547 primary (BCD 2013-2019 closed-world, held-out discipline; 0.8489 confirmed = BCD all-period); HC/MC/HSC unchanged, UN/LH move <=0.4pp Adds Figures 1-5 (real-data plots + schematics), full references, Appendix A/B, UN/HSC ICCR, n-reconciliation, #13 MOPS-metadata survival verification, "參" set-level feasibility probe (negative). Two codex (gpt-5.5) adversarial rounds applied; no fabrication found. Bundle: paper/v13_build/ (markdown source, harvest/figure scripts, figures) for reproducibility. Handoff note for co-author included. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-15 03:24:50 +08:00

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gbanyan

cb38d413ad

Paper A v13 rev9: sensitivity surface + honesty fixes (GPT-5.5 hostile review)

Pre-emptively address the three residual points from a hostile GPT-5.5
reviewer pass that rev8 had not fully closed (the rest of that review
matched the already-applied fusion revision):

- Sensitivity surface (Major 5): new Figure 6 maps the deployed rule over
  the full (cosine cut x dHash cut) plane - clean-group flag rate and the
  Firm A-minus-B/C/D contrast. Shows no cliff at (0.95, dHash<=5), contrast
  >45pp across a broad region (58pp at 0.97/dHash<=3), and that extending to
  the MC bound (dHash<=15) halves the contrast - so the thresholds are not
  cherry-picked and the weaker MC band is shown, not hidden. Reproducible
  via make_fig6_sensitivity.py (DB columns only).

- Soften "reuse-dominated" (Major 1): the assertion that Firm A "is" a
  reuse-dominated population now reads "behaves in the screen as," explicitly
  resting on interviews + byte-identity rather than per-signature ground
  truth; two other uses made conditional/generic.

- Shared-pipeline contamination of ICCR (Major 2): Sec III-E now names the
  shared within-firm imaging pipeline (scanners, PDF assembly, red-stamp
  removal) as a channel that can lift the inter-CPA rate above true chance,
  distinct from "shared template," supported by the Sec V-B pipeline audit;
  bias direction (higher floor) keeps the Firm-A contrast conservative.

rev9 docx rebuilt (6 figures embedded).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Qn59FdF9JMyfFg3sjcUNNG

2026-06-23 14:59:55 +08:00

gbanyan

da455791de

Paper A v13 rev8: fusion-review revision (29 items) + verified data analysis

Address all 29 items from the fused reviewer report (Gemini 3.1 Pro +
ChatGPT 5.5 + Opus 4.8): 3 fatal, 4 severe, arbitration A/B, 5 fusion-new,
15 minor. All new numbers computed from signature_analysis.db; nothing
fabricated.

Claim honesty (F1/F3/F4/F7/G3):
- Retract all "139x the floor" comparisons; ICCR -> between-accountant
  specificity proxy throughout; state within-accountant FPR is not
  estimable and ICCR is not even a bound (anti-conservative direction).
- Firm A reframed as quasi-positive known-positive benchmark (not blinded).
- byte-identity recast as prevalence signal, not a recall/sanity check.
- tunable -> single-direction conservativeness dial (no P-R frontier).

New data analysis (verified, bit-reproducible via committed scripts):
- F2/G1 (Sec V-B): 880-PDF imaging-pipeline audit (Table V) - plain scans
  82% (2013) -> 1% (2021); producer strings name scanner hardware
  (Fuji Xerox D125 etc.); substrate transforms at 2020/21 = named confound.
- F5 (Sec IV-C): four robustness checks - pool-size stratification,
  accountant-clustered bootstrap (gap 53.7pp [49.5,57.5]), firm+year FE
  logistic (B/C/D OR 0.06-0.12), leave-one-year-out (gap 53.1-54.9pp).
- byte-identity era split: 30 scan-era (18 Firm A, pipeline-robust) vs
  232 digital-era (detectability-inflated, hedged).
- G5: archive-wide 888 expected chance HC flags [677,1098].
- M4: Figure 3 replaced with real 2D density (n=150,441).

Structure/minor: abstract restructured (M1); operational definition (M2);
interview disclaimer (M3); Threats to Validity subsection (M8); review
protocol framed as design not evidence (M9); N reconciliations (M10/M11);
Table II-c 2020-23 five-way (M12); Section refs, American spelling,
notation table (M5/M13/M15); reference URLs verified (M14).

Open (author-only): placeholders (M13), II-b/IV table merge (M15).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Qn59FdF9JMyfFg3sjcUNNG

2026-06-23 14:36:51 +08:00

gbanyan

66c9194fcf

Paper A v13: filled submission draft (rev7) + reproducible build bundle

Fill all 18 placeholders in the condensed v13 submission draft with
data verified against the analysis DB and LOCKED canonical scripts;
close 12/13 co-author review items (only #8b protocol first-run open).

Key changes (need co-author sign-off; see handoff doc):
- Firm A out-of-sample HC 0.01% -> 0.42% (buggy 0.0001 from Script 49
  same-pair bug, propagated v4.2->v13; never reuse 0.0001)
- §III-D empty cell ~=0 -> 7,681 honest reframe (not degenerate crops)
- low cosine cut 0.837 -> 0.8547 primary (BCD 2013-2019 closed-world,
  held-out discipline; 0.8489 confirmed = BCD all-period); HC/MC/HSC
  unchanged, UN/LH move <=0.4pp

Adds Figures 1-5 (real-data plots + schematics), full references,
Appendix A/B, UN/HSC ICCR, n-reconciliation, #13 MOPS-metadata
survival verification, "參" set-level feasibility probe (negative).
Two codex (gpt-5.5) adversarial rounds applied; no fabrication found.

Bundle: paper/v13_build/ (markdown source, harvest/figure scripts,
figures) for reproducibility. Handoff note for co-author included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-15 03:24:50 +08:00

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