Paper A v3.8: resolve Gemini 3.1 Pro round-6 independent-review findings

Gemini round-6 (paper/gemini_review_v3_7.md) gave Minor Revision but
flagged three issues that five rounds of codex review had missed.
This commit addresses all three.

BLOCKER: Accountant-level BD/McCrary null is a power artifact, not
proof of smoothness (Gemini Issue 1)
- At N=686 accountants the BD/McCrary test has limited statistical
  power; interpreting a failure-to-reject as affirmative proof of
  smoothness is a Type II error risk.
- Discussion V-B: "itself diagnostic of smoothness" replaced with
  "failure-to-reject rather than a failure of the method ---
  informative alongside the other evidence but subject to the power
  caveat in Section V-G".
- Discussion V-G (Sixth limitation): added a power-aware paragraph
  naming N=686 explicitly and clarifying that the substantive claim
  of smoothly-mixed clustering rests on the JOINT weight of dip
  test + BIC-selected GMM + BD null, not on BD alone.
- Results IV-D.1 and IV-E: reframe accountant-level null as
  "consistent with --- not affirmative proof of" clustered-but-
  smoothly-mixed, citing V-G for the power caveat.
- Appendix A interpretation paragraph: explicit inferential-asymmetry
  sentence ("consistency is what the BD null delivers, not
  affirmative proof"); "itself evidence for" removed.
- Conclusion: "consistent with clustered but smoothly mixed"
  rephrased with explicit power caveat ("at N = 686 the test has
  limited power and cannot affirmatively establish smoothness").

MAJOR: Table X FRR / EER was tautological reviewer-bait
(Gemini Issue 2)
- Byte-identical positive anchor has cosine approx 1 by construction,
  so FRR against that subset is trivially 0 at every threshold
  below 1 and any EER calculation is arithmetic tautology, not
  biometric performance.
- Results IV-G.1: removed EER row; dropped FRR column from Table X;
  added a table note explaining the omission and directing readers
  to Section V-F for the conservative-subset discussion.
- Methodology III-K: removed the EER / FRR-against-byte-identical
  reporting clause; clarified that FAR against inter-CPA negatives
  is the primary reported quantity.
- Table X is now FAR + Wilson 95% CI only, which is the quantity
  that actually carries empirical content on this anchor design.

MINOR: Document-level worst-case aggregation narrative (Gemini
Issue 3) + 15-signature delta (Gemini spot-check)
- Results IV-I: added two sentences explicitly noting that the
  document-level percentages reflect the Section III-L worst-case
  aggregation rule (a report with one stamped + one hand-signed
  signature inherits the most-replication-consistent label), and
  cross-referencing Section IV-H.3 / Table XVI for the mixed-report
  composition that qualifies the headline percentages.
- Results IV-D: added a one-sentence footnote explaining that the
  15-signature delta between the Table III CPA-matched count
  (168,755) and the all-pairs analyzed count (168,740) is due to
  CPAs with exactly one signature, for whom no same-CPA pairwise
  best-match statistic exists.

Abstract remains 243 words, comfortably under the IEEE Access
250-word cap.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-04-21 14:47:48 +08:00
parent 552b6b80d4
commit fcce58aff0
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@@ -25,11 +25,12 @@ Replication quality varies continuously with scan equipment, PDF compression, st
At the per-accountant aggregate level the picture partly reverses.
The distribution of per-accountant mean cosine (and mean dHash) rejects unimodality, a BIC-selected three-component Gaussian mixture cleanly separates (C1) a high-replication cluster dominated by Firm A, (C2) a middle band shared by the other Big-4 firms, and (C3) a hand-signed-tendency cluster dominated by smaller domestic firms, and the three 1D threshold methods applied at the accountant level produce mutually consistent estimates (KDE antimode $= 0.973$, Beta-2 crossing $= 0.979$, logit-GMM-2 crossing $= 0.976$).
The BD/McCrary test, however, does not produce a significant transition at the accountant level either, in contrast to the signature level.
This pattern is consistent with a clustered *but smoothly mixed* accountant-level distribution rather than with a sharp density discontinuity: accountant-level means cluster into three recognizable groups, yet the transitions between them are gradual rather than discrete at the bin resolution BD/McCrary requires.
This pattern is consistent with a clustered *but smoothly mixed* accountant-level distribution rather than with a sharp density discontinuity: accountant-level means cluster into three recognizable groups, yet the test fails to reject the smoothness null at the sample size available ($N = 686$), and the GMM cluster boundaries appear gradual rather than sheer.
We caveat this interpretation appropriately in Section V-G: the BD null alone cannot affirmatively establish smoothness---only fail to falsify it---and our substantive claim of smoothly-mixed clustering rests on the joint weight of the GMM fit, the dip test, and the BD null rather than on the BD null alone.
The substantive interpretation we take from this evidence is therefore narrower than a "discrete-behaviour" claim: *pixel-level output quality* is continuous and heavy-tailed, and *accountant-level aggregate behaviour* is clustered (three recognizable groups) but not sharply discrete.
The accountant-level mixture is a useful classifier of firm-and-practitioner-level signing regimes; individual behaviour may still transition or mix over time within a practitioner, and our cross-sectional analysis does not rule this out.
Methodologically, the implication is that the three 1D methods are meaningfully applied at the accountant level for threshold estimation, while the BD/McCrary non-transition at the same level is itself diagnostic of smoothness rather than a failure of the method.
Methodologically, the implication is that the two threshold estimators (KDE antimode, Beta mixture with logit-Gaussian robustness) are meaningfully applied at the accountant level for threshold estimation, while the BD/McCrary non-transition at the same level is a failure-to-reject rather than a failure of the method---informative alongside the other evidence but subject to the power caveat recorded in Section V-G.
## C. Firm A as a Replication-Dominated, Not Pure, Population
@@ -103,7 +104,8 @@ Extending the accountant-level analysis to auditor-year units is a natural next
Sixth, the BD/McCrary transition estimates fall inside rather than between modes for the per-signature cosine distribution, and the test produces no significant transition at all at the accountant level.
In our application, therefore, BD/McCrary contributes diagnostic information about local density-smoothness rather than an independent accountant-level threshold estimate; that role is played by the KDE antimode and the two mixture-based estimators.
The BD/McCrary results remain informative as a robustness check---their non-transition at the accountant level is consistent with the dip-test and Beta-mixture evidence that accountant-level clustering is smooth rather than sharply discontinuous.
We emphasize that the accountant-level BD/McCrary null is *consistent with*---not affirmative proof of---smoothly mixed cluster boundaries: the BD/McCrary test is known to have limited statistical power at modest sample sizes, and with $N = 686$ accountants in our analysis the test cannot reliably detect anything less than a sharp cliff-type density discontinuity.
Failure to reject the smoothness null at this sample size therefore reinforces BD/McCrary's role as a diagnostic rather than a definitive estimator; the substantive claim of smoothly-mixed accountant-level clustering rests on the joint weight of the dip-test and Beta-mixture evidence together with the BD null, not on the BD null alone.
Finally, the legal and regulatory implications of our findings depend on jurisdictional definitions of "signature" and "signing."
Whether non-hand-signing of a CPA's own stored signature constitutes a violation of signing requirements is a legal question that our technical analysis can inform but cannot resolve.